Geopolitical Risk — Threats

## What this measures

This sub-index counts newspaper articles about geopolitical threats, military buildups, nuclear threats, and warnings of conflict, as a share of all articles in ten major papers. 100 is the 1985–2019 average.

## Background

Monthly threats sub-index.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

A rise in threat language tells stewards that geopolitical tension is entering public discourse, which can unsettle markets, delay investment, and shift supply-chain priorities before any conflict occurs. Even when threats do not materialize, the coverage itself shapes sentiment and risk perception among customers, investors, and policymakers.

## How to read it

A reading above 100 means threat coverage is above its historical average; a reading below 100 means it is below. Compare periods to see whether tension is building or receding.

## What it does not say

The index measures news coverage, not the actual likelihood or severity of conflict. It does not distinguish credible threats from bluster, nor does it capture geopolitical risks that go unreported.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello construct the index from automated text searches of ten newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files daily from the authors' published work (Federal Reserve Board staff; CC BY 4.0).