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Mortgage Rate Lock-In Gap: Market Rate Minus Average Outstanding Rate · pp

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2.01percentage points

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Methodology

## What this measures

The quarter's average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate minus the average contract rate on all mortgages outstanding at quarter end (housing.nmdb.avg_rate), in percentage points. A Palanor calculation. Q1 2013 to Q2 2026.

## Why it matters

How much more a typical owner would pay on a new mortgage than on the one they have: the size of the lock-in, in one number.

## How to read it

Q2 2026: 2.01 points (market 6.41% against 4.4% outstanding). Below zero, owners could refinance into a lower rate; far above zero, moving means a costlier loan.

## What it does not say

An average: owners who bought or refinanced recently face no gap at all, those who locked in 2020–21 a much larger one. NMDB is a nationally representative 5% sample of closed-end first-lien residential mortgages in Experian credit files, not a census; FHFA suppresses cells with fewer than three sample loans. Shares are by number of mortgages (VALUE1); by unpaid balance (VALUE2) the high-rate buckets weigh more because newer loans are larger. Rates are the contract rate: an adjustable-rate loan counts at its current rate.

## Source

Palanor calculation (src/lib/fhfa/nmdb.ts) from Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database (NMDB®) aggregate statistics, outstanding residential mortgage statistics, national, quarterly (https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/nmdb/nmdb-outstanding-mortgage-statistics-national-census-areas-quarterly.zip); data dictionary and technical notes 2026Q1. NMDB is a joint FHFA and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau program; FHFA publishes these aggregates. U.S. government work: "information and materials produced by Federal agencies, including FHFA, are in the public domain" (fhfa.gov website policy). Read weekly by /api/cron/fhfa-state-hpi-sync. Market rate: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, 30-year fixed, via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), quarter average.

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