Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

## What this measures

This signal reflects the market-implied probability that France will hold a referendum or other binding vote to leave the European Union before 2030, and that the result will favor exit. The value ranges from 0 to 1, where higher numbers indicate traders believe departure is more likely.

## Why it matters

A French exit would reshape regulatory frameworks, supply chains, and labor mobility across Europe, forcing organizations with European operations to redesign contracts, sourcing, and compliance programs. Even rising probability ahead of an actual vote can shift investment flows, currency rates, and policy timelines as governments and businesses prepare for potential discontinuity.

## How to read it

A rising probability suggests traders see growing political support, legislative momentum, or electoral prospects for exit advocates in France. A falling probability indicates traders expect the status quo to hold. Compare this to exit probabilities for other member states to identify where political risk is concentrating.

## What it does not say

This is a market price, not a forecast by Palanor. It does not specify the mechanism of any vote, the timing within the window, or the policies a post-exit France might adopt.

## Source

Kalshi publishes this contract. Palanor reads the last traded price from Kalshi's public market data hourly.