Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

## What this measures

This is the market-implied probability that President Trump will end the Federal Reserve before January 20, 2029. The market resolves to 1 if the Federal Reserve is dissolved or ceases to function as the central bank during that period, and 0 otherwise.

## Why it matters

The Federal Reserve's existence underpins monetary policy, interest rates, and financial system stability in the United States. Any credible prospect of its elimination would signal profound disruption to credit markets, currency stability, and the institutional framework that organizations rely on for planning and capital allocation. Even small shifts in this probability reflect changing assessments of political risk and institutional continuity.

## How to read it

The value runs from 0 to 1, where higher numbers mean the market assigns greater likelihood to the Federal Reserve being ended. A rise indicates traders see increased probability of this outcome; a fall indicates decreased probability. This is a market price reflecting collective trader judgment, not a forecast by Palanor.

## What it does not say

This does not measure the likelihood of Federal Reserve policy changes, leadership turnover, or reforms that leave the institution intact. It reflects only trader views on complete elimination, not the feasibility or mechanics of such an action.

## Source

Palanor reads the contract's last traded price from Kalshi's public market data hourly.