Will there be a Trump economic boom?

## What this measures

This signal tracks the market-implied probability that U.S. quarterly GDP growth will exceed 5 percent annualized in at least one quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028. The value reflects the last traded price of a Kalshi prediction market contract tied to that outcome.

## Why it matters

Sustained economic expansion above 5 percent would signal unusually strong demand for goods, services, and labor. Organizations use expectations of such growth to inform hiring, capital investment, and inventory decisions. Rapid growth also shapes inflation expectations and the likelihood of policy tightening.

## How to read it

The value ranges from 0 to 1, where higher readings indicate the market assigns greater probability to at least one quarter reaching the threshold. A rising probability suggests traders see improved odds of a sharp acceleration in output. The signal resolves to 1 if any quarter meets the condition, and 0 otherwise.

## What it does not say

This is a market price, not a forecast by Palanor. It does not indicate which quarter might see the threshold crossed, the drivers of growth, or the likelihood of sustained expansion beyond a single quarter.

## Source

The market is published by Kalshi. Palanor reads the contract's last traded price from Kalshi's public market data hourly.