OECD Composite Leading Indicator · United States

## What this measures

The OECD's composite leading indicator for United States, amplitude-adjusted so 100 marks the long-run trend of economic activity. Built from a country-specific basket of early-moving series — orders, confidence, financial conditions, hours — chosen for their lead on industrial production.

## Why it matters

The CLI is designed to turn six to nine months before the economy does. It is the cleanest free read on *where in the cycle* a large economy sits, on a scale that compares across countries.

## How to read it

Slope first, level second. Rising and above 100: expansion gathering. Falling but above 100: expansion fading. Falling and below 100: slowdown. Rising from below 100: recovery. A turn is one to two months of a changed sign in the month-on-month difference.

## What it does not say

It does not forecast magnitude — a CLI at 101 says the cycle is up, not that GDP will grow 3%. Recent months are revised as source series arrive.

## Source

OECD SDMX API, dataflow `OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_CLI`, key USA.M.LI...AA...H. Free, no key.