The Reshoring Index

## What this measures

The Reshoring Index reads three concrete dimensions of whether US manufacturing is actually coming back: total US manufacturing employment (BLS MANEMP), the Transportation Services Index for freight (BTS TSIFRGHT), and the US dollar trade-weighted index inverted (a weaker dollar makes US-made goods more competitive globally). When all three are rising, reshoring is real. When manufacturing jobs are flat while the narrative claims a renaissance, the index tells you the data does not yet support the story.

## Why it matters

Manufacturing employment is the bedrock — if reshoring is real, you see it in the BLS payrolls report. Anyone can promise factories; only jobs being filled is proof. Freight is the second-order test — reshored production means more goods physically moving on US trucks and rail. The Transportation Services Index captures this in one number. Dollar competitiveness is the enabling condition — a strong dollar punishes exporters; a weak dollar does the opposite. Reshoring needs the dollar to cooperate.

## How to read it

Above 75 (mania band): manufacturing jobs accelerating, freight expanding, dollar weakening — the reshoring story is finally working in the data. Below 25 (calm band): the narrative is outrunning the data; capital flowing into reshoring themes is paying a premium for a thesis that has not yet earned out.

## What it does not say

The index does not capture announcements, groundbreakings, or capex commitments — only realized activity. Manufacturing employment has been roughly 12.7M since 2018; a sustained move above 13M would be the first real proof of the new narrative. Tariffs alone do not move this number on a year horizon.

## Source

Computed daily by Palanor from 3 component signals in the lattice. Each component's weight, transform and current contribution is shown on the index's methodology page.