World Projected Population, Low End of 95% Range (UN)

## What this measures

The lower bound of the UN's 95% prediction interval for the population of the world, 2024 to 2100, from the World Population Prospects 2024 probabilistic projections. A projection, not a measurement.

## Why it matters

Long-range population projections frame every long-term plan: market size, labour supply, pensions, food and energy demand, and when growth ends.

## How to read it

Every reading is projected. Together with the opposite bound it gives the range the UN's model puts 95% probability on; the width grows with time because small differences in fertility compound. Dated July 1.

## What it does not say

A projection is conditional on the model's assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. It is not a forecast of wars, pandemics or policy shifts, and it changes with each revision.

## Source

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Licence: © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Palanor's copy is unchanged except where this section says otherwise. From the WPP probabilistic projections (file PPP/POPTOT). The UN revises the whole series every two years; the next revision replaces these figures back to 1950.