Germany Yield Curve Slope, 10-Year minus 2-Year (Daily, bp)

## What this measures

The 10-year Bund zero-coupon yield minus the 2-year, in basis points (one basis point is 0.01 percentage point), on every day both are published. The euro area's 2s10s.

## Why it matters

The slope of the Bund curve is the euro area's recession signal and the clearest read of whether markets think ECB policy is restrictive (flat or inverted) or easy (steep).

## How to read it

Positive is a normal, upward-sloping curve; negative is inverted. The record since 1997 runs from 261 bp on 12 May 2010 (the steepest) to -78 bp on 3 July 2023 (the deepest inversion). The curve was inverted on 465 trading days in that record, the last on 6 September 2024, and read 49 bp on 8 October 2026.

## What it does not say

A Palanor subtraction of two Bundesbank estimates, not a Bundesbank series. A steep curve can mean expected growth or expected supply; an inversion has preceded euro-area slowdowns but the lag varies. Daily estimates are revised.

## Source

Palanor calculation: rates.bund.10y minus rates.bund.2y, both Deutsche Bundesbank term-structure estimates (Svensson method) on listed Federal securities, written by the Bundesbank sync after each fetch. Source of the inputs: Deutsche Bundesbank.