Treasury Curve · 3m10y Spread

## What this measures

The 10-year Treasury par yield minus the 3-month par yield, in percentage points, for every business day since 1990.

## Why it matters

The Fed's preferred recession-probability input. It inverts later and un-inverts earlier than 2s10s, so it reads the policy rate against the long end more directly.

## How to read it

Positive means the 10-year pays more than the 3-month bill. Below zero, the curve is inverted: markets expect policy rates to fall. The deeper and longer the inversion, the stronger the historical recession signal; the return above zero is the part to watch.

## What it does not say

It does not time a recession or measure its size. Bill yields move with Fed expectations week to week, so a single day's print says little on its own.

## Source

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (home.treasury.gov), read directly from Treasury's published file each business day. A work of the U.S. Government, in the public domain (17 U.S.C. §105). Palanor computes the spread (10 Yr − 3 Mo).