Median One-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE)

## What this measures

Median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, in percent.

## Why it matters

Inflation expectations shape wage demands and pricing. The Fed watches this series closely.

## How to read it

Compare with UMich (fred_mich). The SCE is a panel and less volatile; divergence between the two is itself a signal.

## What it does not say

The SCE is a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. It measures what households expect, not what happens to them. Expectations lead outcomes, but they also overshoot.

## Source

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.