Median Three-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE)

## What this measures

Median expected annual inflation rate three years ahead, in percent.

## Why it matters

This is the anchoring read. If medium-term expectations move, the public no longer believes inflation is temporary.

## How to read it

Stability matters more than the level. A drift above 3% is de-anchoring.

## What it does not say

The SCE is a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. It measures what households expect, not what happens to them. Expectations lead outcomes, but they also overshoot.

## Source

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.