Expected Probability of Finding a Job (SCE)

## What this measures

The mean probability, in percent, that respondents would find a job within three months if they lost their current one.

## Why it matters

It measures how much slack households feel in the labor market. A falling reading means losing a job would cost more, which is the kind of insecurity that weakens a society.

## How to read it

Higher is better. Read it against the job-loss probability: loss rising while finding falls is the worst combination.

## What it does not say

The SCE is a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. It measures what households expect, not what happens to them. Expectations lead outcomes, but they also overshoot.

## Source

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.