Trade Policy Uncertainty (daily, 30-day avg)

## What this measures

This signal measures newspaper coverage of trade policy uncertainty by counting articles in seven leading US newspapers that discuss trade policy (tariffs, import duties, trade treaties, dumping) together with uncertainty, as a share of all articles. The index is normalized so that 100 equals the average from 1960 to 2019, and the signal shows a 30-day moving average to smooth daily noise.

## Background

Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty index, 30-day moving average, 2015 onward. The daily series itself is too noisy to read.

The Trade Policy Uncertainty index counts articles in seven leading US newspapers that discuss trade policy (tariffs, import duties, trade treaties, dumping) together with uncertainty, as a share of all articles. 100 = the average from 1960 to 2019. Built by staff at the Federal Reserve Board. Source: Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino and Raffo (2020), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics 109; data at matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Trade policy uncertainty can disrupt planning for organizations that rely on imports, exports or cross-border supply chains. When trade rules or tariffs are in flux, companies may delay investment, hedge input costs or renegotiate contracts. Rising uncertainty also signals broader political risk that can affect currency, credit and demand.

## How to read it

A rising index means trade policy is more prominent in uncertain terms in the press; falling means less coverage of trade uncertainty. Compare current levels to the long-run average of 100 to see whether trade policy uncertainty is elevated or subdued relative to the past six decades.

## What it does not say

This index captures what newspapers write, not the substance of policy or its economic impact. Coverage may spike on rumor or speculation, and the index does not distinguish between resolved and unresolved questions.

## Source

The Trade Policy Uncertainty index is built by staff at the Federal Reserve Board and published under CC BY 4.0 at matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm. Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files daily.