Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

## What this measures

The Trade Policy Uncertainty index measures the frequency with which seven leading US newspapers discuss trade policy, tariffs, import duties, trade treaties, dumping, together with uncertainty, as a share of all articles. The index is scaled so that 100 equals the average level from 1960 to 2019.

## Background

Monthly Trade Policy Uncertainty index, 1960 onward.

The Trade Policy Uncertainty index counts articles in seven leading US newspapers that discuss trade policy (tariffs, import duties, trade treaties, dumping) together with uncertainty, as a share of all articles. 100 = the average from 1960 to 2019. Built by staff at the Federal Reserve Board. Source: Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino and Raffo (2020), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics 109; data at matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Rising trade policy uncertainty signals potential shifts in tariffs, trade agreements or enforcement that can disrupt supply chains, alter input costs and force organizations to delay investment or renegotiate contracts. Sustained elevation often precedes or accompanies changes in trade regulation that affect cross-border operations, procurement and market access. Organizations exposed to international trade use the index to anticipate when policy volatility may require scenario planning or hedging.

## How to read it

A reading above 100 means newspaper coverage of trade policy uncertainty is higher than the historical average; below 100 means it is lower. Spikes typically reflect active trade disputes, treaty negotiations or legislative debates. Compare current levels to the long-run mean to gauge whether uncertainty is elevated.

## What it does not say

The index reflects media coverage, not the content or likelihood of policy change, so it can rise even when no trade policy shifts occur. It does not measure uncertainty in other regulatory domains or forecast the direction of trade policy.

## Source

Built by staff at the Federal Reserve Board and published by Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino and Raffo in the Journal of Monetary Economics. Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files, released under CC BY 4.0.