Non-state conflict deaths (UCDP, monthly)

## What this measures

Deaths in fighting between organized armed groups, neither of them a government, per month. This includes clashes between militias, rebel factions, criminal gangs and other non-state actors.

## Background

Deaths in fighting between organized armed groups, neither of them a government, per month.

Uppsala Conflict Data Program: every event of organized violence with at least one death, coded by hand from news and NGO sources, with a best, low and high fatality estimate. Monthly sums of the best estimate by the month the event started. History from the annual GED release; the most recent months from the preliminary monthly Candidate release, replaced by final figures when GED catches up. The current month is excluded as partial. Licence CC BY 4.0. Cite: Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013), "Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research 50(4). Synced weekly by /api/cron/ucdp-sync.

## Why it matters

Non-state violence can disrupt supply chains, displace populations and destabilize regions where an organization operates or sources materials. Sustained fighting between armed groups often signals weak governance and elevated operational risk, even when governments are not parties to the conflict.

## How to read it

A rise means more people died in clashes between non-state armed groups that month. Higher counts indicate more intense or widespread violence; lower counts suggest fewer or less lethal confrontations. Compare across months to see whether non-state conflict is escalating or subsiding.

## What it does not say

This does not capture state-based violence, one-sided attacks on civilians, or events with no deaths. It does not show where fighting occurred, which groups were involved, or whether violence is concentrated in a few incidents or spread across many.

## Source

Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Monthly sums of deaths from the best estimate in the GED annual release and the preliminary Candidate release, coded from news and NGO sources. Palanor syncs the data weekly.