One-sided violence deaths (UCDP, monthly)

## What this measures

This counts deaths from deliberate attacks on civilians by state forces or organized armed groups in a given month. It captures one-sided violence where the victims are not engaged combatants.

## Background

Deaths from deliberate violence against civilians by governments or armed groups, per month.

Uppsala Conflict Data Program: every event of organized violence with at least one death, coded by hand from news and NGO sources, with a best, low and high fatality estimate. Monthly sums of the best estimate by the month the event started. History from the annual GED release; the most recent months from the preliminary monthly Candidate release, replaced by final figures when GED catches up. The current month is excluded as partial. Licence CC BY 4.0. Cite: Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013), "Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research 50(4). Synced weekly by /api/cron/ucdp-sync.

## Why it matters

Civilian violence disrupts operations, supply chains and markets in affected regions. It signals governance breakdown, humanitarian crisis and reputational risk for organizations with exposure to those areas. Tracking the pattern helps assess when conditions may stabilize or deteriorate further.

## How to read it

A rise indicates more civilian deaths that month; a fall indicates fewer. Compare levels across months to identify escalation or de-escalation. Sustained elevation points to entrenched insecurity.

## What it does not say

It does not capture combat deaths between armed forces, indirect deaths from displacement or disease, or violence that goes unreported in news and NGO sources.

## Source

Uppsala Conflict Data Program codes every organized violence event with at least one death from news and NGO reports. Palanor sums monthly best estimates from the annual GED release and preliminary monthly Candidate release, synced weekly.