State-based conflict deaths (UCDP, monthly)

## What this measures

This signal counts deaths in organized armed conflicts where at least one party is a government. It sums fatalities each month from events worldwide.

## Background

Deaths in conflicts where at least one side is a government, per month.

Uppsala Conflict Data Program: every event of organized violence with at least one death, coded by hand from news and NGO sources, with a best, low and high fatality estimate. Monthly sums of the best estimate by the month the event started. History from the annual GED release; the most recent months from the preliminary monthly Candidate release, replaced by final figures when GED catches up. The current month is excluded as partial. Licence CC BY 4.0. Cite: Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013), "Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research 50(4). Synced weekly by /api/cron/ucdp-sync.

## Why it matters

Conflict deaths signal regions where operations, supply chains and personnel face acute risk. They mark moments when regulatory frameworks collapse, insurance premiums spike and partnerships become untenable. Organizations use this to time entries, exits and contingency plans.

## How to read it

A rise means more people died in state-involved conflicts that month; a fall means fewer. Compare levels across months to see whether violence is intensifying or subsiding. Spikes often follow escalations or new fronts opening.

## What it does not say

This counts only conflicts with a government on one side, so it excludes purely non-state violence. It does not capture injuries, displacement or economic damage.

## Source

Uppsala Conflict Data Program codes every event of organized violence from news and NGO reports, assigning best, low and high fatality estimates. Palanor sums the best estimates by month, drawing final figures from the annual GED release and recent months from the preliminary Candidate release.