U.S. Economy Health

## What this measures

One reading of U.S. economic health built from official series: real GDP growth (20%), the unemployment rate (15%, lower is better), the prime-age employment rate (10%), how far core PCE inflation sits from 2% (15%, closer is better), the household debt service ratio (10%, lower is better), the New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey (10%), export growth (10%) and housing starts (12-month average, 10%). Each is placed as a percentile of its own monthly history since January 1998; the composite is the weighted average of the components with data that month, rescaled so 0 is the weakest month in the record and 100 the strongest.

## Why it matters

It puts growth, jobs, prices, household strain and demand on one scale, measured against the U.S. economy's own record. It is built the same way as Canada Economy Health (canada.economy_health), so the four North American and UK readings can be read side by side.

## How to read it

Around 50 is an ordinary month by the country's own standard. As of October 2026 the weakest month in the record is June 2009 (0), spring 2020 reads about 11, and the strongest is April 2000 (100), at the top of the late-1990s boom. A reading is published when at least 75% of the weight has data. The debt service ratio starts in 2005 and the Empire State survey in 2001; their weight is redistributed before then.

## What it does not say

Each country is scored against itself: 60 in one country and 60 in another mean an equally good month by each one's own record, not equally strong economies. It is not a forecast and not a Custom Index. Percentiles use the full record, so the whole history is re-expressed as new data arrive; the anchors move if a new extreme arrives.

## Source

Computed daily by Palanor. Inputs: BEA (GDP, core PCE, exports), BLS (unemployment, employment), Federal Reserve Board (debt service), Census Bureau (housing starts), all via FRED and in the public domain; the Empire State survey is © Federal Reserve Bank of New York, content subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.