Social Security COLA minus Inflation While Paid · pts

## What this measures

Each COLA minus consumer price inflation (CPI-U, all items, BLS via FRED CPIAUCSL) over the twelve months from the month it took effect to the same month a year later, in percentage points: a Palanor calculation. 1975 to 2024; the newest COLA gets a value once its twelve months of prices are published.

## Why it matters

The COLA is set on inflation that has already happened, so a raise can fall behind when prices accelerate after it is fixed, or run ahead when they cool. This measures that lag in the year the money was actually spent.

## How to read it

Above zero, the raise beat the prices of the year it was paid; below zero, beneficiaries lost ground. The 2024 COLA left a gap of −0.15 points (inflation while paid 2.7%). 24 of the 50 COLAs in this record fell short.

## What it does not say

CPI-U is the broad urban index, not the CPI-W that sets the COLA or the experimental CPI-E for older people. A single year's gap evens out over time because each COLA catches up on the previous year's inflation.

## Source

Social Security Administration (COLA table, public domain) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U via FRED CPIAUCSL (public domain). Palanor calculation in src/lib/ssa/cola.ts.