US–China goods trade balance (12 months)

## What this measures

This measures the net balance of goods trade between the United States and China over the trailing twelve months. A negative value means the US imports more goods from China than it exports to China.

## Background

Σ over 12 months of (US exports to China − US imports from China), from Census FT-900 via FRED (EXPCH, IMPCH). A deficit that narrows can mean decoupling (less bought from China) or a weaker US economy; read it with China's share of US imports. Computed monthly by /api/cron/fred-composites.

## Why it matters

The bilateral balance reflects the economic integration between the two largest economies and can signal shifts in supply chains, tariff policy, or relative demand. A narrowing deficit may indicate decoupling or slower US consumption, while a widening deficit suggests stable or growing reliance on Chinese-made goods.

## How to read it

A more negative number means a larger US deficit with China. Compare changes over time to identify trends in the trading relationship, and read the balance alongside China's share of total US imports to distinguish between broad trade policy shifts and cyclical swings in domestic demand.

## What it does not say

This does not capture services trade, the profitability of trade flows, or whether the balance reflects voluntary shifts in sourcing or policy-driven decoupling. It also does not reveal which industries or product categories are driving changes in the balance.

## Source

Palanor computes this series by summing monthly US exports to China minus imports from China over the trailing twelve months, using EXPCH and IMPCH from the US Census Bureau's FT-900 report as published in the FRED API.