US goods trade balance (12 months)

## What this measures

This measures the net balance of goods exported from and imported into the United States over the trailing twelve months, expressed in billions of US dollars. A negative number indicates the country imported more goods than it exported; a positive number indicates the reverse.

## Background

The United States' goods trade balance with the world, trailing 12 months, $ billions.

Σ12 of the monthly merchandise trade balance from the OECD's International Merchandise Trade Statistics (FRED XTNTVA01USM667S, US dollars, seasonally adjusted) ÷ 1e9. Computed monthly by /api/cron/fred-composites.

## Why it matters

The goods trade balance signals shifts in domestic production strength, currency competitiveness, and international demand for what the country makes. Persistent changes can affect input costs, supply chain decisions, and the attractiveness of export-oriented investments. Large swings may also indicate structural changes in where goods are sourced or sold.

## How to read it

A decline toward more negative values means net imports are growing faster than net exports, which can reflect stronger domestic demand, weaker export competitiveness, or a rising currency. A move toward less negative or positive values suggests exports are gaining ground. Compare the current level to its range over several years to assess whether the balance is widening or narrowing.

## What it does not say

This does not include services trade, investment income, or financial flows. It reflects the value of physical goods alone, so a narrowing deficit does not necessarily mean the overall current account is improving.

## Source

Palanor pulls this series from the FRED API nightly. The underlying data is the monthly merchandise trade balance from the OECD's International Merchandise Trade Statistics, summed over the trailing twelve months.