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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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How Far the Best U.S. AI Model Leads the Best Chinese Model

Best U.S. model’s Epoch Capabilities Index score minus the best Chinese model’s, monthly, ECI points

9.4 in Oct 2026+0.4 since Jan 2024
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
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5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0). A model counts for a country when one of its developers is based there. Above zero, the best U.S. model scores higher. The gap jumps when either side releases a new best model. Palanor calculation.

The U.S. lead at the frontier, in one line. It narrows when a Chinese lab releases a model close to the U.S. best and widens when a U.S. lab moves the frontier again.

What this chart reads

Sources

AI Capability Gap: Best U.S. Model vs. Best Chinese Model (ECI points). Source: Palanor calculation from the Epoch Capabilities Index (Epoch AI, epoch.ai/eci, CC BY 4.0).

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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