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AI Capex vs. Cloud Revenue

Capital spending and cloud revenue of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle, trailing twelve months, $ billions

Capex: $477B in Q2 2026the highest in data back to 2022+$353B since Q2 2022
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
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U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Q2 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Capex · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year

Cloud revenue · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

SEC filings (10-Q and 10-K, XBRL). Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle; Oracle’s fiscal quarters count in the calendar quarter they end in. Capex is company-wide cash spent on property and equipment, excluding finance leases. Cloud revenue is each company’s reported cloud line: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, Oracle cloud (IaaS and SaaS). Microsoft redefined Intelligent Cloud in August 2024, so cloud revenue steps down between the June and September quarters of that year.

The two sides of the AI infrastructure race at the four companies that rent out computing: what they spend on data centers, chips and equipment, and what their cloud businesses take in. Where the capex line runs above revenue, a year of building costs more than a year of cloud sales brings in.

What this chart reads

Sources

Cloud Providers Capex (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle) · Trailing 12 Months. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR: the companies' 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL). SEC filings are public information and may be copied or redistributed (sec.gov). Refreshed weekly.

Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue (AWS + Google Cloud + Microsoft + Oracle) · Trailing 12 Months. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR: the companies' 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL). SEC filings are public information and may be copied or redistributed (sec.gov). Refreshed weekly.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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