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Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical Risk Index, based on newspaper coverage of threats and acts
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Threats · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Acts · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
Caldara and Iacoviello, Federal Reserve Board (CC BY 4.0).
How much newspapers write about geopolitical tension, split between threats and actual events. Spikes mark wars, attacks and invasions.
What this chart reads
- Geopolitical Risk — Threatsas “Threats”latest 2026-09-01
- Geopolitical Risk — Actsas “Acts”latest 2026-09-01
Sources
Geopolitical Risk — Threats. Source: Caldara and Iacoviello construct the index from automated text searches of ten newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files daily from the authors' published work (Federal Reserve Board staff; CC BY 4.0).
Geopolitical Risk — Acts. Source: Caldara and Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board staff) publish the index, derived from automated text search of ten newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files under a CC BY 4.0 license.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.