Skip to content
Palanor is in early release, with our founding customers.Become a founding customer →
The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Line

Horizon Turbulence

Palanor Horizon Turbulence, 0 = calmest month since 2000, 100 = most turbulent

61 in Oct 2026+5 since Jan 2000
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
Show ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Combines financial stress, credit spreads, bond volatility, policy, trade and geopolitical uncertainty, card delinquencies and the Sahm rule, each scored against its own record.

How turbulent the environment is for long-range planning, measured against every month since 2000. Each input is placed on its own record so today can be compared with past episodes of strain.

What this chart reads

Sources

Horizon Turbulence. Source: Palanor.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

Related charts

MarketsForecast

Magnificent Seven Share of the S&P 500

Combined market value of the seven largest tech companies as a share of the S&P 500, %

34.7%Data yesterday
MarketsForecast

Yield Curve: 10-Year Minus 2-Year

Difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, percentage points

0.32 ppData yesterday
MarketsForecast

U.S. Treasury Yields

Yields on 2-year, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries, %

4.79%Data 2 days ago
MarketsForecastMoving

Polymarket Open Interest

Dollars locked as collateral behind open Polymarket positions, USD, end of each week

$375MData yesterday
MarketsForecast

Financial Stress

OFR Financial Stress Index, 0 = average stress

−1.9Data 3 days ago
MarketsForecastMoving

The Magnificent Seven and the Rest of the S&P 500: How Closely They Move

Correlation of daily returns, Magnificent Seven Index vs the S&P 500 excluding the seven, rolling 63 and 126 trading days

0.55Data yesterday

Cookies

We only use essential cookies to keep you signed in and remember your theme. No analytics, no tracking, no ads. See the Privacy Policy for the full read.