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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.06Palanor: Geopolitical Stress59.7-0.25Palanor: Liquidity58.8+0.87Palanor: Capital Tightness46.4-1.11Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression52.8-0.63Palanor: Consumer Confidence47.1-1.44Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.5+0.01Palanor: Labor Heat63.20.00Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.7+0.64Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.2-0.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.7+0.74Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.7-0.15Palanor: AI Substitution28.6+0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.8+0.43Palanor: Quit Pressure34.7-2.85The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.5+0.37Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.4-0.05Rise of Socialism Index40.6-0.18The Bubble Memory98.5-0.00Palanor: Steward Confidence51.0+0.19The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.20.00The Capital Return Index80.2-0.77The Discourse Index74.3+1.91The Hesitation Index33.4+2.64Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index76.1-2.39The Boardroom Index81.7-0.84The Layoff Cycle Index35.6+2.75Capital Deployment Posture Index61.7-0.67The Consumer Health Index41.8+0.07Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index65.5-1.13Palanor: Risk Appetite35.4-0.76
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Line

Leading Indicators: U.S., China and G7

OECD Composite Leading Indicators, long-term average = 100

United States: 101.0 in Sep 2026the highest since 2022−0.2 since Sep 2021

2 of 3 series are above their level a year earlier·1 of 3 is at a five-year low

YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show ▾
High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Sep 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

United States · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

China · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

G7 · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. A projection, not a promise.

Above its long-term average and rising suggests growth above trend in the months ahead.

OECD indicators designed to anticipate turning points in growth several months ahead. The direction matters more than the level.

What this chart reads

Sources

OECD Composite Leading Indicator · United States. Source: OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_CLI, key USA.M.LI...AA...H. Free, no key.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator · China. Source: OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_CLI, key CHN.M.LI...AA...H. Free, no key.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator · G7. Source: OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_CLI, key G7.M.LI...AA...H. Free, no key.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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