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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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Private Capital Pulse

How busy U.S. private capital is against its own record: Form D raising and fund formation, IPO filings and completed acquisitions, monthly, index

63.0 in Sep 2026+33.5 since Mar 2012
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
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U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Sep 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Palanor calculation from SEC filings (public domain): Form D venture money, first-time Form D raisers, new venture and private equity funds, IPO registrations (S-1 and F-1, SPACs left out) and completed acquisitions reported on 8-K. Each is the latest three months against the same months a year earlier, ranked against its own record; the five ranks are averaged and rescaled from the weakest month in the record (bottom of the scale) to the strongest (top). A composite signal, not an official statistic.

One monthly reading of U.S. private capital activity from public filings: money raised by private companies, new funds, companies filing to go public and completed acquisitions, each ranked against its own record. High readings mean activity is growing faster than usual; low readings, slower.

What this chart reads

Sources

Private Capital Pulse (U.S., monthly). Source: Palanor calculation from SEC Form D data sets and EDGAR filing indexes (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; public domain): capital.form_d.* (Form D), ipo.us.registrations.monthly (EDGAR form indexes) and deals.us.acquisitions_completed.monthly (8-K Item 2.01).

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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