Scatter
Stocks, Bonds and Gold: Risk and Return Since the End of the Gold Standard
Average annual return against the standard deviation of annual returns, %, portfolios rebalanced each January
Plays the chart through its history, period by period.
Palanor calculation from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP), shown with his permission. Stocks: the S&P 500 with dividends; bonds: 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds; gold: the year-end gold price. Arithmetic averages and sample standard deviations of yearly returns from the first full year after the dollar left gold to the latest. Nominal, before fees, taxes and inflation. History, not a forecast.
The classic efficient-frontier picture from half a century of U.S. returns. Each point is a portfolio: moving along a line trades bonds for stocks, buying more return with more volatility. Holding a tenth in gold shifts the stock-and-bond line, because gold often rose when stocks or bonds fell.
13 points
| # | Item | Group | % a year | % standard deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% stocks | Stocks and bonds | 12.5% | 17.0% |
| 2 | 90% stocks, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 12.4% | 15.1% |
| 3 | Gold | Gold alone | 11.7% | 27.3% |
| 4 | 72% stocks, 18% bonds, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 11.3% | 12.3% |
| 5 | 80% stocks, 20% bonds | Stocks and bonds | 11.3% | 13.9% |
| 6 | 54% stocks, 36% bonds, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 10.2% | 9.9% |
| 7 | 60% stocks, 40% bonds | Stocks and bonds | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| 8 | 36% stocks, 54% bonds, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 9.1% | 8.3% |
| 9 | 40% stocks, 60% bonds | Stocks and bonds | 8.8% | 9.3% |
| 10 | 18% stocks, 72% bonds, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 8.0% | 7.9% |
| 11 | 20% stocks, 80% bonds | Stocks and bonds | 7.6% | 8.7% |
| 12 | 90% bonds, 10% gold | Stocks and bonds with a tenth in gold | 6.9% | 9.0% |
| 13 | 100% bonds | Stocks and bonds | 6.3% | 9.8% |
What this chart reads·13 series
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- Portfolio (100% stocks) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “100% stocks”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (80% stocks, 20% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “80% stocks, 20% bonds”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “60% stocks, 40% bonds”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (40% stocks, 60% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “40% stocks, 60% bonds”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (20% stocks, 80% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “20% stocks, 80% bonds”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (100% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “100% bonds”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (90% stocks, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “90% stocks, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (72% stocks, 18% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “72% stocks, 18% bonds, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (54% stocks, 36% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “54% stocks, 36% bonds, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (36% stocks, 54% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “36% stocks, 54% bonds, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (18% stocks, 72% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “18% stocks, 72% bonds, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio (90% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972as “90% bonds, 10% gold”latest 2025-12-31
- Portfolio of Gold Alone · Average Annual Return since 1972as “Gold”latest 2025-12-31
Sources·13 sources
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Portfolio (100% stocks) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (80% stocks, 20% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (40% stocks, 60% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (20% stocks, 80% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (100% bonds) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (90% stocks, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (72% stocks, 18% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (54% stocks, 36% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (36% stocks, 54% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (18% stocks, 72% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio (90% bonds, 10% gold) · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Portfolio of Gold Alone · Average Annual Return since 1972. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/damodaran/frontier.ts) from Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern (histretSP): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html. Shown with Professor Damodaran's written permission (display only); not available as a data file.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.