Line
Productivity and Pay
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector and real hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers, both indexed to their 1964 average = 100, quarterly
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Output per hour · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year
Real hourly earnings · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: nonfarm business labor productivity, and average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees deflated by the CPI-U. Indexes by Palanor. Earnings, not total compensation: benefits are left out, unlike the Economic Policy Institute’s version. The two use different price measures (consumer prices for pay, the prices of business output for productivity).
Output per hour worked and the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers, the large majority of private-sector employees, both started at 100 in 1964. Where the lines part, output per hour has grown faster than this measure of typical pay; the note lists what the comparison leaves out.
What this chart reads
- U.S. Productivity Index, 1964 = 100 (Productivity vs. Pay)as “Output per hour”latest 2026-04-01
- U.S. Real Hourly Earnings Index, Production and Nonsupervisory Workers, 1964 = 100 (Productivity vs. Pay)as “Real hourly earnings”latest 2026-07-01
Sources
U.S. Productivity Index, 1964 = 100 (Productivity vs. Pay). Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: nonfarm business labor productivity (OPHNFB), average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (AHETPI) and the CPI-U (CPIAUCSL), read from FRED. Public domain. Indexes calculated by Palanor.
U.S. Real Hourly Earnings Index, Production and Nonsupervisory Workers, 1964 = 100 (Productivity vs. Pay). Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: nonfarm business labor productivity (OPHNFB), average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (AHETPI) and the CPI-U (CPIAUCSL), read from FRED. Public domain. Indexes calculated by Palanor.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.