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Sahm Rule Recession Signal
Three-month average unemployment rate minus its low over the prior year, percentage points
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Claudia Sahm’s rule signals a recession when the gap rises past a set threshold; see the signal’s methodology page.
A recession signal built from the unemployment rate alone. It measures how far joblessness has risen from its recent low; past crossings of the threshold lined up with recessions.
What this chart reads
- Sahm Rule Gap (US Unemployment)as “Sahm rule gap”latest 2026-09-01
Sources
Sahm Rule Gap (US Unemployment). Source: Computed by Palanor from the BLS unemployment rate (UNRATE, public domain). Rule: Sahm (2019), "Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals."
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.