Demographic stage

The stages

1. 1. High stationary

   Births and deaths are both high, so the population grows slowly.

2. 2. Early expanding

   Deaths have fallen while births stay high: the population grows fast.

3. 3. Late expanding

   Births are falling toward deaths; growth slows and the working-age share swells.

4. 4. Low stationary

   Births and deaths are both low and close together; the population is near flat and ageing.

5. 5. Declining

   Deaths outnumber births: without migration the population shrinks.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: High stationary needs deaths per 1,000 people at or near its range; Declining needs natural increase per 1,000 (births − deaths) at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.