Development stage

The stages

1. 1. Pre-take-off

   Most output and work are still on the land; incomes are low and most people live outside cities.

2. 2. Take-off

   Industry and cities are pulling people off the land; incomes are rising from a low base.

3. 3. Drive to maturity

   Industry and services carry most output; incomes are middling and most people live in cities.

4. 4. High mass consumption

   Incomes are high, farming is a sliver of output and services lead.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: Pre-take-off needs agriculture, % of gdp at or near its range; High mass consumption needs gdp per person (2021 ppp $) at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.