External balance stage

The stages

1. 1. Immature debtor

   Imports exceed exports and the country borrows from abroad to cover the gap and its interest.

2. 2. Mature debtor

   Trade is near balance, but interest and dividends paid abroad keep the current account in deficit.

3. 3. Debt repayer

   A trade surplus now exceeds payments abroad: the country pays its debts down.

4. 4. Immature creditor

   Surpluses have turned it into a net creditor; trade still runs a surplus.

5. 5. Mature creditor

   Income from assets abroad now covers a trade deficit; the current account stays in surplus.

6. 6. Credit disinvestor

   Trade deficits outrun income from abroad: the country draws its foreign assets down.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: Immature creditor needs current account, % of gdp at or near its range; Mature creditor needs net international investment position, % of gdp at or near its range; Credit disinvestor needs net international investment position, % of gdp at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.