Bars over time
The Mortgage Lock-In Gap
Freddie Mac 30-year rate (quarterly average) minus the average rate on outstanding mortgages, percentage points
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database: first-lien residential mortgages open at the end of each quarter, a one-in-twenty sample of mortgages in credit files, shares by number of loans. Palanor’s calculation. Below zero, borrowers could refinance into a lower rate; above zero, a new loan costs more than the one they hold.
The extra rate the typical owner would pay on a new mortgage, every quarter since 2013.
What this chart reads
- Mortgage Rate Lock-In Gap: Market Rate Minus Average Outstanding Rate · ppas “Lock-in gap”latest 2026-04-01
Sources
Mortgage Rate Lock-In Gap: Market Rate Minus Average Outstanding Rate · pp. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/fhfa/nmdb.ts) from Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database (NMDB®) aggregate statistics, outstanding residential mortgage statistics, national, quarterly (https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/nmdb/nmdb-outstanding-mortgage-statistics-national-census-areas-quarterly.zip); data dictionary and technical notes 2026Q1. NMDB is a joint FHFA and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau program; FHFA publishes these aggregates. U.S. government work: "information and materials produced by Federal agencies, including FHFA, are in the public domain" (fhfa.gov website policy). Read weekly. Market rate: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, 30-year fixed, via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), quarter average.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.