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Trade Policy Uncertainty

Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, based on newspaper coverage

261 in Sep 2026+230 since Jan 1990
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
Show ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Sep 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Caldara, Iacoviello and co-authors, Federal Reserve Board (CC BY 4.0).

How often newspapers write about uncertainty over trade policy. It sat low for decades and has spiked around tariff announcements since 2018.

What this chart reads

Sources

Trade Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: Built by staff at the Federal Reserve Board and published by Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino and Raffo in the Journal of Monetary Economics. Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files, released under CC BY 4.0.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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