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Battery-Electric Share of U.S. Cars and Light Trucks on the Road: EIA Projections
Battery-electric vehicles as a share of the U.S. light-duty vehicle stock, %: EIA’s baseline, with EPA’s tailpipe standards for model years 2027 on, and its Alternative Transportation case, without them
Palanor forecasts are off on this chart because it already shows its source's own forecast (dashed). We don't draw our forecast over a published one.
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Dashed: U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, the source's own projection, not Palanor's. The latest reading, its standing and the change above read actual data only.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (public domain). Every point is an EIA projection, not a count. The baseline (EIA’s Counterfactual Baseline, formerly the Reference case) includes EPA’s tailpipe greenhouse gas standards for model years 2027 on; the Alternative Transportation case removes them. Plug-in hybrids are not counted. Share calculated by Palanor.
How quickly battery-electric vehicles could make up America’s fleet, under two sets of federal rules. Vehicles stay on the road for years, so the fleet changes far more slowly than new-car sales.
What this chart reads
- U.S. Battery-Electric Share of Light-Duty Vehicles on the Road, EIA Projection (Baseline Case)as “Baseline”latest 2050-12-31
- U.S. Battery-Electric Share of Light-Duty Vehicles on the Road, EIA Projection (Alternative Transportation Case)as “Alternative Transportation”latest 2050-12-31
Sources
U.S. Battery-Electric Share of Light-Duty Vehicles on the Road, EIA Projection (Baseline Case). Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (released April 8, 2026), Table 39 "Light-Duty Vehicle Stock by Technology Type", EIA API v2 route aeo/2026: Total Vehicle Stock : Electric (eci_stk_trn_ldv_ele) divided by Total Vehicle Stock (eci_stk_trn_ldv), both in millions of vehicles; the share is calculated by Palanor. U.S. government data, public domain.
U.S. Battery-Electric Share of Light-Duty Vehicles on the Road, EIA Projection (Alternative Transportation Case). Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (released April 8, 2026), Table 39 "Light-Duty Vehicle Stock by Technology Type", EIA API v2 route aeo/2026: Total Vehicle Stock : Electric (eci_stk_trn_ldv_ele) divided by Total Vehicle Stock (eci_stk_trn_ldv), both in millions of vehicles; the share is calculated by Palanor. U.S. government data, public domain.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.