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U.S. Business Applications: All and Likely Employers
Applications for an Employer Identification Number each month, all and high-propensity, seasonally adjusted
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
All applications · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
High-propensity applications · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, via FRED, seasonally adjusted. Applications for an Employer Identification Number: intent to start a business, not a business with employees. High-propensity applications are the ones the Census Bureau judges likely to hire.
Applications to start a business jumped in 2020 and stayed high. Most of the jump came from applications the Census Bureau judges unlikely to hire; the high-propensity line counts the ones likely to become employers.
What this chart reads
- Business Applications: Total for All NAICS (SA)as “All applications”latest 2026-09-01
- High-Propensity Business Applications (U.S.)as “High-propensity applications”latest 2026-09-01
Sources
Business Applications: Total for All NAICS (SA). Source: US Census Bureau via FRED (BABATOTALSAUS). Monthly, public.
High-Propensity Business Applications (U.S.). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics (BAHBATOTALSAUS), via FRED. Public domain.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.