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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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Bars over time

U.S. Federal Budget Balance

Federal surplus or deficit as a share of GDP, %

−5.8% in 2025+0.3 pp since 2023
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
Current·Data to 2025

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Negative values are deficits.

The gap between what the federal government collects and spends, scaled to the economy. Deficits widen in recessions and narrow in expansions, but the baseline has drifted lower.

What this chart reads

Sources

US Federal Surplus / Deficit · % GDP. Source: OMB via FRED, series FYFSGDA188S.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, %

99.4%Data to Sep 2025
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Trust in the Federal Government

Share of Americans who trust the federal government to do what is right always or most of the time, %

22%Data to Jun 2025
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Interest Costs in the Federal Budget

Federal interest as a share of outlays and of tax receipts, %

13.8%Data to Apr 2026
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US National Defense Spending (NIPA)

Federal national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment, $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate (BEA NIPA via FRED FDEFX).

1,190Data to Apr 2026
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U.S. Defense Spending

National defense spending as a share of GDP, %

3.7%Data to Apr 2026
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Interest Costs vs. Defense Spending

Federal interest payments divided by national defense spending, ratio

1.08Data to Apr 2026

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