Tuvalu
Everything Palanor holds about Tuvalu, in one place: 31 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
OceaniaAsia-Pacific
Country Posture
What Tuvalu’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.6 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 3.0 |
| Change in unemployment | — |
| Change in the employment rate | — |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
2025Withheld: 1 of 5 core inputs reported for 2025.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue | — |
| Budget balance | — |
| Reserves, months of imports | — |
| Current account | — |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 0.60 |
| External debt | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | — |
| Change in inflation | — |
| Currency move against the dollar | 2.4% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 1.42 |
| Private credit, three-year change | — |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Tuvalu passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Tuvalu itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
0.0%rank 114 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.
Recorded changes
- 2025-01-08United Kingdom · visit: Visa-free → Online travel authorisation source
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Tuvalu
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.9 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 7,125 | 8,367 | 8,857 | 10,223 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 21.1 | 4.7 | -0.6 | -10.1 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | 25.8 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -5.8 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 26.1 | -16.6 | -20.4 | -11.0 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 0.3 | -13.0 | -9.9 | -5.2 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
News
In the news
- Pacific leaders watch Tuvalu reclamation effort ahead of UN climate meet reut.rs/4jEPuh0
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-06neutral
Headlines that name Tuvalu, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Signals
Every series about Tuvalu
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 31 in the Library.
Trade and capital flows1
- Tuvalu · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)record high since 2001; 1y +43.06 pts505.2% of GDP2023
Migration1 of 3
- U.S.-Born People Living in Tuvalu (UN)record low since 19903 people2024
Peers
Elsewhere in Oceania
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
American SamoaAustraliaCook IslandsFijiFrench PolynesiaGuamKiribatiMarshall IslandsMicronesiaNauruNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNiueNorthern Mariana IslandsPalauPapua New GuineaSamoaSolomon IslandsTongaVanuatu