Debt cycle stage

The stages

1. 1. Early cycle

   Debt is moderate and growing roughly in line with income.

2. 2. Leveraging

   Private credit is growing much faster than the economy.

3. 3. Late cycle

   Debt is high and its service takes a large share of revenue; growth in credit has stalled.

4. 4. Deleveraging

   Private debt is shrinking relative to income, usually while public debt rises.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: Leveraging needs private credit, 5-year change (pts of gdp) at or near its range; Deleveraging needs private credit, 5-year change (pts of gdp) at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.