Electoral cycle
How far a country is through its current national electoral term, from the last principal national election to the next scheduled one.
William Nordhaus’s political business cycle (1975) and Kenneth Rogoff’s budget cycles (1990): governments tend to time spending, taxes and reforms to the electoral calendar. Palanor reads the calendar only.
Stages describe where a country sits against its own past and other countries. They are not ratings: no stage is better or worse than another, and Palanor never sorts countries by one.
Publishing stages · 71 countries · monthly · method v1, pre-registered 2026-10-22
A calendar position, checked by hand-computed values rather than episodes (pre-registration §4).
The stages
1. Post-election
Less than a quarter of the term has passed since the last national election.
2. Mid-term
Between a quarter and three-quarters of the term has passed.
3. Pre-election
More than three-quarters of the term has passed; the next national election is approaching or due.
United Arab Emirates
Country Dossier →No reading for United Arab Emirates: not enough of this schema’s evidence is published.
Where each country has been
One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per month, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.
| Country | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Latest | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Austria | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bahrain | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bolivia | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brazil | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bulgaria | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chile | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| China | No reading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Colombia | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Costa Rica | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Croatia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cyprus | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Czechia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Denmark | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DR Congo | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ecuador | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Egypt | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Estonia | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ethiopia | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| France | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hungary | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iceland | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| India | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indonesia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iran | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iraq | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ireland | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Israel | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Japan | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jordan | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kuwait | No reading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latvia | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lithuania | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Luxembourg | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Malta | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mexico | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Namibia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Zealand | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Norway | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oman | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Panama | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Paraguay | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peru | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Poland | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Qatar | No reading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Romania | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Russia | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | No reading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sierra Leone | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Slovakia | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Slovenia | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South Africa | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South Korea | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | Pre-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sweden | Post-election 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Switzerland | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turkey | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | No reading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United Kingdom | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Uruguay | Mid-term 2026-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zambia | Post-election 2026-10 |
The election table
Dates and legal terms only, maintained by Palanor from electoral commissions, parliaments and constitutions (checked 2026-10-22). No parties, candidates or results. Where only the year of the next election is fixed, the term is read to July 1 of that year or the legal end of the term, whichever is earlier.
| Country | Election counted | Last | Next scheduled | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Presidential election | 2023-11-19 | 2027 (by 2027-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Australia | general election to the House of Representatives (parliamentary system) | 2025-05-03 | 2028 (by 2028-05-03) | [1][2][3] |
| Austria | legislative (Nationalrat, lower house; government responsible to it) | 2024-09-29 | 2029 (by 2029-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Bahrain | Council of Representatives (elected lower chamber of the National Assembly) | 2022-11-19 | 2027-12-31 | [1][2][3] |
| Belgium | legislative (federal Chamber of Representatives) | 2024-06-09 | 2029 (by 2029-06-09) | [1][2][3] |
| Bolivia | Presidential election | 2025-10-19 | 2030 (by 2030-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Brazil | Presidential election | 2022-10-30 | 2026-10-25 | [1][2][3] |
| Bulgaria | parliamentary: National Assembly general election | 2026-04-19 | 2030 (by 2030-04-19) | [1][2][3] |
| Canada | House of Commons general election (parliamentary system) | 2025-04-28 | 2029-10-15 | [1][2][3] |
| Chile | Presidential election | 2025-12-14 | 2029-11-18 | [1][2][3] |
| China | No direct popular national election chooses the legislature or head of the executive; National People's Congress deputies are indirectly elected by provincial-level people's congresses and the armed forces. | — | — | [1] |
| Colombia | Presidential election | 2026-06-21 | 2030 (by 2030-06-21) | [1][2][3] |
| Costa Rica | Presidential election | 2026-02-01 | 2030-02-03 | [1][2][3] |
| Croatia | parliamentary: Sabor general election | 2024-04-17 | 2028 (by 2028-04-17) | [1][2][3] |
| Cyprus | presidential (executive presidency) | 2023-02-12 | 2028 (by 2028-02-12) | [1][2][3] |
| Czechia | legislative (Chamber of Deputies) | 2025-10-04 | 2029 (by 2029-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Denmark | legislative (Folketing, unicameral) | 2026-03-24 | 2030-03-23 | [1][2][3] |
| DR Congo | presidential | 2023-12-20 | 2028 (by 2028-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Ecuador | Presidential election | 2025-04-13 | 2029 (by 2029-04-13) | [1][2][3] |
| Egypt | presidential | 2023-12-12 | 2030 (by 2029-12-12) | [1][2][3] |
| Estonia | legislative (Riigikogu, unicameral; president is not executive) | 2023-03-05 | 2027-03-07 | [1][2][3] |
| Ethiopia | parliamentary: House of Peoples' Representatives general election (HoPR elects the Prime Minister) | 2026-06-01 | 2031 (by 2031-06-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Finland | legislative (Eduskunta; government formed from parliament) | 2023-04-02 | 2027-04-18 | [1][2][3] |
| France | presidential (executive president) | 2022-04-24 | 2027-04-18 | [1][2][3] |
| Germany | legislative (Bundestag; elects the chancellor) | 2025-02-23 | 2029-03-25 | [1][2][3] |
| Greece | legislative (Hellenic Parliament, unicameral) | 2023-06-25 | 2027-07-25 | [1][2][3] |
| Hungary | legislative (National Assembly, unicameral) | 2026-04-12 | 2030 (by 2030-04-12) | [1][2][3] |
| Iceland | legislative (Althing, unicameral) | 2024-11-30 | 2028-12-02 | [1][2][3] |
| India | general election to the Lok Sabha (parliamentary system) | 2024-06-01 | 2029 (by 2029-06-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Indonesia | presidential election (president holds executive power) | 2024-02-14 | 2029 (by 2029-02-14) | [1][2][3] |
| Iran | presidential election (president is head of the executive branch, subordinate to the Supreme Leader) | 2024-07-05 | 2028 (by 2028-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Iraq | parliamentary: Council of Representatives general election (CoR elects the President, who names the PM) | 2025-11-11 | 2029 (by 2029-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Ireland | legislative (Dáil Éireann, lower house) | 2024-11-29 | 2030 (by 2029-11-29) | [1][2][3] |
| Israel | general election to the Knesset (parliamentary system) | 2022-11-01 | 2026-10-27 | [1][2][3] |
| Italy | legislative (Parliament; government needs confidence of both chambers) | 2022-09-25 | 2027-12-22 | [1][2][3] |
| Japan | general election to the House of Representatives (parliamentary system) | 2026-02-08 | 2030 (by 2030-02-08) | [1][2][3] |
| Jordan | House of Representatives (elected lower chamber; PM appointed by the King) | 2024-09-10 | 2028 (by 2028-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Kuwait | The Amir dissolved the National Assembly and suspended some constitutional articles on 10 May 2024 for up to four years; it remained suspended as of Oct 2026. | — | — | [1][2] |
| Latvia | legislative (Saeima, unicameral; president not executive) | 2026-10-03 | 2030-10-05 | [1][2][3] |
| Lithuania | legislative (Seimas; government formed from it, semi-presidential system) | 2024-10-27 | 2028-10-08 | [1][2][3] |
| Luxembourg | legislative (Chamber of Deputies, unicameral) | 2023-10-08 | 2028-10-08 | [1][2][3] |
| Malta | parliamentary: House of Representatives general election | 2026-05-30 | 2031 (by 2031-05-30) | [1][2][3] |
| Mexico | Presidential election | 2024-06-02 | 2030-06-02 | [1][2][3] |
| Namibia | presidential | 2024-11-27 | 2029 (by 2029-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Netherlands | parliamentary: Tweede Kamer (House of Representatives) general election | 2025-10-29 | 2030 (by 2029-10-29) | [1][2][3] |
| New Zealand | general election to the House of Representatives (parliamentary system) | 2023-10-14 | 2026-11-07 | [1][2][3] |
| Norway | parliamentary: Storting general election | 2025-09-08 | 2029 (by 2029-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Oman | Majlis al-Shura (elected lower chamber of the Council of Oman; advisory) | 2023-10-29 | 2027 (by 2027-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Panama | Presidential election | 2024-05-05 | 2029-05-06 | [1][2][3] |
| Paraguay | Presidential election | 2023-04-30 | 2028 (by 2028-04-30) | [1][2][3] |
| Peru | Presidential election | 2026-06-07 | 2031 (by 2031-06-07) | [1][2][3] |
| Poland | parliamentary: Sejm general election | 2023-10-15 | 2027-11-11 | [1][2][3] |
| Portugal | parliamentary: Assembleia da Republica legislative election (presidential elections Jan/Feb 2026 are not the principal election here) | 2025-05-18 | 2029-10-14 | [1][2][3] |
| Qatar | Constitutional amendments approved by referendum on 5 Nov 2024 ended elections for the Shura Council, which is again wholly appointed by the Amir. | — | — | [1][2] |
| Romania | parliamentary: Chamber of Deputies general election | 2024-12-01 | 2028 (by 2028-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Russia | presidential election (president holds executive power) | 2024-03-17 | 2030 (by 2030-03-17) | [1][2][3] |
| Saudi Arabia | No national legislative or executive elections; the Consultative Assembly (Majlis al-Shura) is wholly appointed by the King. | — | — | [1] |
| Sierra Leone | presidential | 2023-06-24 | 2028 (by 2028-06-24) | [1][2][3] |
| Slovakia | parliamentary: National Council general election | 2023-09-30 | 2027 (by 2027-07-01) | [1][2][3] |
| Slovenia | parliamentary: National Assembly (Drzavni zbor) general election | 2026-03-22 | 2030 (by 2030-03-22) | [1][2][3] |
| South Africa | parliamentary: National Assembly general election (Assembly elects the President) | 2024-05-29 | 2029 (by 2029-05-29) | [1][2][3] |
| South Korea | presidential election (president holds executive power) | 2025-06-03 | 2030 (by 2030-06-03) | [1][2][3] |
| Spain | parliamentary: Congress of Deputies general election | 2023-07-23 | 2026-11-29 | [1][2][3] |
| Sweden | parliamentary: Riksdag general election | 2026-09-13 | 2030-09-08 | [1][2][3] |
| Switzerland | parliamentary: National Council general election (Federal Council is elected by parliament) | 2023-10-22 | 2027-10-24 | [1][2][3] |
| Turkey | presidential (executive presidency; held jointly with Grand National Assembly election) | 2023-05-28 | 2028 (by 2028-05-28) | [1][2][3] |
| United Arab Emirates | Federal National Council is advisory; 20 of 40 members are elected by appointed electoral colleges (about 399,000 members in 2023), the rest appointed, and there is no direct universal suffrage. | — | — | [1][2] |
| United Kingdom | parliamentary: House of Commons general election | 2024-07-04 | 2029-08-15 | [1][2][3] |
| United States | Presidential election | 2024-11-05 | 2028-11-07 | [1][2][3] |
| Uruguay | Presidential election | 2024-11-24 | 2029-10-28 | [1][2][3] |
| Zambia | presidential | 2026-08-13 | 2031-08-14 | [1][2][3] |
How it is read
Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.
| Indicator | Weight | Post-election | Mid-term | Pre-election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of the electoral term elapsed, % | 100% | < 25.0% | 25.0% – 75.0% | > 75.0% |
What it cannot see
A calendar position, not a political read: no parties, candidates, polls or outcomes. Snap elections reset the clock when they happen; nothing anticipates them. Countries with no direct national election get no reading. The election table is maintained by Palanor from electoral commissions, parliaments and constitutions, and each date carries its source.
References
- William D. Nordhaus, The Political Business Cycle (Review of Economic Studies) (1975).
- Kenneth Rogoff, Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles (American Economic Review) (1990).
Recomputed weekly · last 2026-10-22 · signals country.<iso3>.schema.electoral-cycle.stage and .position · How Country Schemas work