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PalanorPalanor

United Arab Emirates

Everything Palanor holds about United Arab Emirates, in one place: 172 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AsiaMiddle East & North AfricaBRICSMiddle East & Africa

The latest read

Country Posture

What United Arab Emirates’s economy is doing

Momentum

2024

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth4.0
Growth against its three-year average-1.5
Change in unemployment0.0
Change in the employment rate0.1
Export volume growth6.4
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

78Deep buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)3.073
Budget balance (2024)0.475
Reserves, months of imports5.261
Current account (2024)15.795
Governance (WGI mean)0.6385
External debt——

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation1.3
Change in inflation-0.4
Currency move against the dollar0.0%
Conflict deaths per million0.0
Political stability0.83
Private credit, three-year change—
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where United Arab Emirates is in its cycles

Where United Arab Emirates sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    High mass consumption99% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Low stationary76% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Early cycle56% · 2024

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Immature creditor63% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Commodity-reliant93% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Low95% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20132025

    Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.

  • Electoral cycle

    No reading.

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    Federal National Council is advisory; 20 of 40 members are elected by appointed electoral colleges (about 399,000 members in 2023), the rest appointed, and there is no direct universal suffrage.

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a United Arab Emirates passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside United Arab Emirates itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

56.8%

rank 44 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 44 destinations in full.

Work

1.1%

rank 107 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 1 destination in full.

Live

1.1%

rank 47 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 1 destination in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2023-12-23Türkiye · visit: E-visa before travel → Visa-free source

Investment migration programs

  • UAE Golden Visa (investor: real estate / public investment) residence · OpenGovernment minimum $547,280 for one person, $552,165 for a family of four (agent fees excluded).

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a United Arab Emirates passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 56.8% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What United Arab Emirates’s economy runs on

In 2023, household spending was 44.9% of GDP, government consumption 12.2%, investment 26.6% and net exports +14.7% (exports 106.8%, imports 92.2%).

What United Arab Emirates's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 98.4% in 2023 · 2023
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for United Arab Emirates

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 7.0 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%6.2-3.97.73.5
Inflation, average consumer prices%1.34.52.52.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn614.4661.0699.4865.6
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn975.4968.81,0761,410
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$54,15157,10959,49970,216
Current account balance% of GDP13.34.87.89.0
Government gross debt% of GDP33.932.830.826.1
Government overall balance% of GDP3.91.54.43.5
Government primary balance% of GDP4.62.35.34.1
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.0.70.80.80.6
United Arab Emirates: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 6.2% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

United Arab Emirates: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 34% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

United Arab Emirates: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 4.0% in 2024 · 2024
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
United Arab Emirates: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10070.4 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name United Arab Emirates

11 of 445 S&P 500 companies named United Arab Emirates on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 2.7% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name United Arab EmiratesShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 2.5% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-24: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-31: 2 headlines, net tone -0.50Week of 2026-09-07: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-21: 1 headlines, net tone -1.00Week of 2026-09-28: 24 headlines, net tone -0.29Week of 2026-10-05: 15 headlines, net tone -0.27Week of 2026-10-12: 5 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-19: 2 headlines, net tone 0.00
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name United Arab Emirates, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in United Arab Emirates

Palanor’s company graph holds 181 entities headquartered here, 1 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

  • VEON Ltd.VEON · HAMILTON

Signals

Every series about United Arab Emirates

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 172 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 29

Prices1 of 3

Jobs and people at work3 of 4

Government and debt8

Trade and capital flows7 of 8

Energy and resources10 of 16

Conflict and geopolitics5 of 9

Aid in and out3

Migration4 of 6

AI stance and technology1 of 3

Climate and the physical world6 of 8

Health and living standards6

Sentiment and attention1

More about this country3 of 15

Peers

Elsewhere in Asia

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AfghanistanArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusGeorgiaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIsraelJapanJordanKazakhstanKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaosLebanonMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMongoliaMyanmarNepalNorth KoreaOmanPakistanPalestinePhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSri LankaSyriaTaiwanTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTürkiyeTurkmenistanUzbekistanVietnamYemen

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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