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Middle-class stage

How much of a country lives on a middle-class income or more, from the World Bank’s household surveys.

Homi Kharas’s global middle class, Nancy Birdsall’s "indispensable middle class", and the $10-a-day security line of Luis-Felipe López-Calva and Eduardo Ortiz-Juárez, read on the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform at 2021 purchasing-power prices.

Stages describe where a country sits against its own past and other countries. They are not ratings: no stage is better or worse than another, and Palanor never sorts countries by one.

Publishing stages · 71 countries · yearly, 1990 on · method v1, pre-registered 2026-10-22

Passes the pre-registered episode check: 6 of 6 episodes read as expected (0 missed, 0 untestable).

The stages

  1. 1. Pre-middle-class

    Few people live on $10 a day or more; poverty is widespread.

  2. 2. Emerging middle class

    A middle class is forming but is still a minority.

  3. 3. Middle-class majority

    Most people live on $10 a day or more; extreme poverty is rare.

  4. 4. Affluent

    Nearly everyone lives on $10 a day or more and a large share on $50 or more.

Affluent99% · coverage 100% · as of 2025-12-31

Affluent. 3 of 3 indicators that speak to this stage sit at or near its range. Living on $10+ a day, % reads 95.8%, within > 80.0%.

EvidenceValueAs ofReads as
Living on $10+ a day, %95.8%2023stage 4
Living on $50+ a day, %31.5%2023stage 4
Living below $3 a day, %1.1%2023stage 3

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

Country19901995200020052010201520202025Latest
ArgentinaMiddle-class majority 2025
AustraliaAffluent 2024
AustriaAffluent 2025
BahrainNo reading
BelgiumAffluent 2025
BoliviaMiddle-class majority 2025
BrazilMiddle-class majority 2025
BulgariaAffluent 2025
CanadaAffluent 2025
ChileAffluent 2025
ChinaMiddle-class majority 2025
ColombiaMiddle-class majority 2025
Costa RicaMiddle-class majority 2025
CroatiaAffluent 2025
CyprusAffluent 2025
CzechiaAffluent 2025
DenmarkAffluent 2025
DR CongoPre-middle-class 2024
EcuadorMiddle-class majority 2025
EgyptEmerging middle class 2025
EstoniaAffluent 2025
EthiopiaPre-middle-class 2025
FinlandAffluent 2025
FranceAffluent 2025
GermanyAffluent 2025
GreeceAffluent 2025
HungaryWithheld
IcelandAffluent 2023
IndiaPre-middle-class 2025
IndonesiaEmerging middle class 2025
IranMiddle-class majority 2025
IraqMiddle-class majority 2025
IrelandAffluent 2025
IsraelAffluent 2025
ItalyAffluent 2025
JapanAffluent 2024
JordanWithheld
KuwaitNo reading
LatviaAffluent 2025
LithuaniaAffluent 2025
LuxembourgAffluent 2025
MaltaAffluent 2025
MexicoMiddle-class majority 2025
NamibiaWithheld
NetherlandsAffluent 2025
New ZealandNo reading
NorwayAffluent 2025
OmanNo reading
PanamaMiddle-class majority 2025
ParaguayMiddle-class majority 2025
PeruMiddle-class majority 2025
PolandAffluent 2025
PortugalAffluent 2025
QatarWithheld
RomaniaAffluent 2025
RussiaWithheld
Saudi ArabiaNo reading
Sierra LeoneWithheld
SlovakiaAffluent 2025
SloveniaAffluent 2025
South AfricaEmerging middle class 2025
South KoreaAffluent 2025
SpainAffluent 2025
SwedenAffluent 2025
SwitzerlandAffluent 2025
TurkeyWithheld
United Arab EmiratesWithheld
United KingdomAffluent 2025
United StatesAffluent 2025
UruguayAffluent 2025
ZambiaPre-middle-class 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluentWithheld

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

IndicatorWeightPre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent
Living on $10+ a day, %55%< 15.0%12.0% – 50.0%45.0% – 85.0%> 80.0%
Living on $50+ a day, %18%< 1.0%< 3.0%< 15.0%> 10.0%
Living below $3 a day, %27%> 20.0%3.0% – 30.0%< 6.0%< 1.5%

Gates: Affluent needs living on $10+ a day, % at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.

EpisodeExpectedRead (years)Outcome
China, 1990–2000Pre-middle-classPre-middle-class 11hit
China, 2015–2024Emerging middle class or Middle-class majorityMiddle-class majority 9, Emerging middle class 1hit
India, 2010–2022Pre-middle-class or Emerging middle classPre-middle-class 13hit
United States, 2000–2024AffluentAffluent 25hit
Ethiopia, 2000–2020Pre-middle-classPre-middle-class 21hit
Brazil, 2010–2024Emerging middle class or Middle-class majorityMiddle-class majority 15hit

What it cannot see

Surveys are years apart in many countries, and the World Bank fills the years between them; Palanor stores no year after a country’s latest survey. Some countries measure income and others consumption, which are not identical. Argentina’s surveys cover cities only. Several Gulf states publish no survey and get no reading.

References

  1. Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries (OECD Development Centre WP 285) (2010).
  2. Nancy Birdsall, The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries (2010).
  3. Luis F. López-Calva and Eduardo Ortiz-Juárez, A vulnerability approach to the definition of the middle class (Journal of Economic Inequality) (2014).
  4. World Bank, Poverty and Inequality Platform (2025).

Recomputed weekly · last 2026-10-22 · signals country.<iso3>.schema.middle-class.stage and .position · How Country Schemas work

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