Structural pressure

The stages

1. 1. Low

   Few of the measured strains are present.

2. 2. Building

   Some strains are rising: youth joblessness, prices or the cost of public debt.

3. 3. High

   Several strains are high together and the country is rated unstable.

4. 4. Acute

   Strains are high and organized violence has reached the level UCDP counts as war.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: High needs political stability (wgi) at or near its range; Acute needs political stability (wgi) and organized-violence deaths (ucdp) at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.