Structural pressure
How much measurable strain sits under a country’s social order: a large young cohort without work, a strained budget, prices, instability and organized violence.
Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory and Jack Goldstone’s state-breakdown model: instability builds when a large young cohort meets poor prospects, the state’s finances strain and elites compete. Henrik Urdal’s work on youth bulges supplies the demographic measure. Palanor reads the parts of these theories it can measure across countries; elite overproduction and relative wages have no cleared cross-country series and are left out. Mancur Olson’s and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s institutional theories are context, not inputs: scoring institutions would rank countries.
Stages describe where a country sits against its own past and other countries. They are not ratings: no stage is better or worse than another, and Palanor never sorts countries by one.
Publishing stages · 71 countries · yearly, 1990 on · method v1, pre-registered 2026-10-22
Passes the pre-registered episode check: 6 of 7 episodes read as expected (1 missed, 0 untestable).
The stages
1. Low
Few of the measured strains are present.
2. Building
Some strains are rising: youth joblessness, prices or the cost of public debt.
3. High
Several strains are high together and the country is rated unstable.
4. Acute
Strains are high and organized violence has reached the level UCDP counts as war.
Croatia
Country Dossier →Low55% · coverage 100% · as of 2025-12-31
Low. 5 of 6 indicators that speak to this stage sit at or near its range. Political stability (WGI) reads 0.684, within > 0.5. Youth unemployment, % disagrees at 16.5%, reading as Building. The read is close: Building carries 45%.
| Evidence | Value | As of | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 15–24, % of adults | 12.1% | 2025 | stage 1 |
| Youth unemployment, % | 16.5% | 2025 | stage 2 |
| Political stability (WGI) | 0.684 | 2025 | stage 1 |
| Interest, % of government revenue | 4.2% | 2023 | stage 1 |
| Inflation, % | 3.69% | 2025 | stage 1 |
| Organized-violence deaths (UCDP) | 0.0 | 2025 | stage 1 |
Where each country has been
One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.
| Country | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | Latest | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Austria | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bahrain | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Belgium | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bolivia | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brazil | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bulgaria | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chile | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| China | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Colombia | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Costa Rica | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Croatia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cyprus | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Czechia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Denmark | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DR Congo | Acute 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ecuador | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Egypt | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Estonia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ethiopia | Acute 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Finland | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| France | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Germany | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Greece | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hungary | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iceland | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| India | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indonesia | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iran | Acute 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iraq | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ireland | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Israel | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Italy | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Japan | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jordan | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kuwait | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latvia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lithuania | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Luxembourg | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Malta | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mexico | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Namibia | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Netherlands | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Zealand | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Norway | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oman | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Panama | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Paraguay | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peru | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Poland | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Qatar | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Romania | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Russia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sierra Leone | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Slovakia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Slovenia | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South Africa | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South Korea | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Spain | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sweden | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Switzerland | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turkey | High 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United Kingdom | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States | Building 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Uruguay | Low 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zambia | Building 2025 |
How it is read
Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.
| Indicator | Weight | Low | Building | High | Acute |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 15–24, % of adults | 18% | < 18.0% | 15.0% – 25.0% | > 22.0% | > 22.0% |
| Youth unemployment, % | 18% | < 12.0% | 10.0% – 22.0% | > 18.0% | > 25.0% |
| Political stability (WGI) | 24% | > 0.5 | -0.4 – 0.7 | -1.3 – -0.2 | < -1.2 |
| Interest, % of government revenue | 12% | < 8.0% | 5.0% – 15.0% | > 12.0% | > 12.0% |
| Inflation, % | 12% | < 5.0% | 3.0% – 12.0% | > 8.0% | > 12.0% |
| Organized-violence deaths (UCDP) | 18% | < 25.0 | < 100.0 | 25.0 – 1,000 | > 1,000 |
Gates: High needs political stability (wgi) at or near its range; Acute needs political stability (wgi) and organized-violence deaths (ucdp) at or near its range.
The publish gate
Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.
| Episode | Expected | Read (years) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt, 2011–2013 | High or Acute | Building 3 | miss |
| Iraq, 2005–2008 | Acute | Acute 4 | hit |
| Iraq, 2014–2017 | Acute | Acute 4 | hit |
| Colombia, 2000–2005 | High or Acute | Acute 6 | hit |
| Norway, 2000–2024 | Low | Low 25 | hit |
| Switzerland, 2000–2024 | Low | Low 25 | hit |
| Ethiopia, 2020–2023 | High or Acute | Acute 4 | hit |
What it cannot see
This is not a forecast of unrest and says nothing about who governs or how. WGI political stability is itself a perception index built from surveys and expert ratings. UCDP counts deaths by where they happen, so a country fighting abroad can read low.
References
- Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (2016).
- Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (1991).
- Henrik Urdal, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence (International Studies Quarterly) (2006).
- Mancur Olson, The Rise and Decline of Nations (1982).
- Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, Why Nations Fail (2012).
- Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (2025).
Recomputed weekly · last 2026-10-22 · signals country.<iso3>.schema.structural-pressure.stage and .position · How Country Schemas work