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Inflation Expectations
Median expected inflation one and three years ahead (consumers), and market breakevens, %
2 of 3 series are above their level a year earlier
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
Consumer figures from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The breakeven is the gap between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields.
What households and bond markets expect inflation to be. Central banks watch whether longer-run expectations stay anchored even when current inflation moves.
What this chart reads
- Median One-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE)as “Consumers, one year ahead”latest 2026-09-01
- Median Three-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE)as “Consumers, three years ahead”latest 2026-09-01
- 5Y Breakeven Inflationas “Market, five-year breakeven”latest 2026-10-21
Sources
Median One-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE). Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.
Median Three-Year Inflation Expectation (SCE). Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.
5Y Breakeven Inflation. Source: Palanor receives this series from the FRED API, which publishes it daily based on Treasury yield data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The series identifier is T5YIE.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.