Line
When World Population Peaks
World population: UN estimates, then the UN’s projection and its likely range, people
Palanor forecasts are off on this chart because it already shows its source's own forecast (dashed). We don't draw our forecast over a published one.
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
The estimate line ends with the UN’s last estimated year; everything after it is projected. The range lines are the bounds of the widest prediction interval the UN publishes for its probabilistic projection. From the UN World Population Prospects, mid-year figures.
How many people the world has, and how many the United Nations expects. Growth is already slowing: the UN’s central projection reaches a peak and then turns down within this century, and the range around it shows how sure that is.
What this chart reads
- World Populationas “Estimate”behindlatest 2023-07-01
- World Projected Population (UN medium variant)as “UN projection (medium)”latest 2100-07-01
- World Projected Population, High End of 95% Range (UN)as “UN range, high end”latest 2100-07-01
- World Projected Population, Low End of 95% Range (UN)as “UN range, low end”latest 2100-07-01
Sources
World Population. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Licence: © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Palanor's copy is unchanged except where this section says otherwise. The UN revises the whole series every two years; the next revision replaces these figures back to 1950.
World Projected Population (UN medium variant). Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Licence: © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Palanor's copy is unchanged except where this section says otherwise. From the WPP standard projections (medium variant). The UN revises the whole series every two years; the next revision replaces these figures back to 1950.
World Projected Population, High End of 95% Range (UN). Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Licence: © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Palanor's copy is unchanged except where this section says otherwise. From the WPP probabilistic projections (file PPP/POPTOT). The UN revises the whole series every two years; the next revision replaces these figures back to 1950.
World Projected Population, Low End of 95% Range (UN). Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. https://population.un.org/wpp/ Licence: © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/). Palanor's copy is unchanged except where this section says otherwise. From the WPP probabilistic projections (file PPP/POPTOT). The UN revises the whole series every two years; the next revision replaces these figures back to 1950.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.