Export structure stage

The stages

1. 1. Commodity-reliant

   One commodity group (fuel, ores and metals, or food) carries a large share of what the country sells abroad.

2. 2. Diversifying

   Manufactures are a growing share of exports, but commodities still matter.

3. 3. Manufacturing exporter

   Manufactures dominate exports; technology-intensive goods are a modest share.

4. 4. Complex exporter

   Manufactures dominate, a large share is high-tech, and research spending is high.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

Gates: Commodity-reliant needs manufactures, % of merchandise exports at or near its range; Complex exporter needs high-tech, % of manufactured exports and r&d spending, % of gdp at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.