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Export structure stage

How far an economy’s exports have moved from raw commodities toward manufactures and technology-intensive goods, with research spending behind them.

Ricardo Hausmann and César Hidalgo’s economic complexity (what a country can make says what it knows), and Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg’s finding that economies diversify before they re-specialize. Palanor does not use the Economic Complexity Index itself (its licence is unclear and it is built on UN Comtrade); it reads the World Bank’s export-structure indicators instead.

Stages describe where a country sits against its own past and other countries. They are not ratings: no stage is better or worse than another, and Palanor never sorts countries by one.

Publishing stages · 71 countries · yearly, 1990 on · method v1, pre-registered 2026-10-22

Passes the pre-registered episode check: 6 of 7 episodes read as expected (1 missed, 0 untestable).

The stages

  1. 1. Commodity-reliant

    One commodity group (fuel, ores and metals, or food) carries a large share of what the country sells abroad.

  2. 2. Diversifying

    Manufactures are a growing share of exports, but commodities still matter.

  3. 3. Manufacturing exporter

    Manufactures dominate exports; technology-intensive goods are a modest share.

  4. 4. Complex exporter

    Manufactures dominate, a large share is high-tech, and research spending is high.

Commodity-reliant65% · coverage 100% · as of 2025-12-31

Commodity-reliant. 2 of 4 indicators that speak to this stage sit at or near its range. Manufactures, % of merchandise exports reads 17.4%, within < 30.0%. High-tech, % of manufactured exports disagrees at 25.4%, reading as Complex exporter.

Where each country has been

One row per country, alphabetical; one cell per year, shaded by the leading stage. Hatched cells were withheld: too little of the evidence was published to place the country. Select a country for its reading and evidence.

Country19901995200020052010201520202025Latest
ArgentinaCommodity-reliant 2025
AustraliaCommodity-reliant 2025
AustriaComplex exporter 2025
BahrainCommodity-reliant 2025
BelgiumComplex exporter 2025
BoliviaCommodity-reliant 2025
BrazilDiversifying 2025
BulgariaManufacturing exporter 2025
CanadaDiversifying 2025
ChileCommodity-reliant 2025
ChinaComplex exporter 2025
ColombiaDiversifying 2025
Costa RicaManufacturing exporter 2025
CroatiaManufacturing exporter 2025
CyprusCommodity-reliant 2025
CzechiaComplex exporter 2025
DenmarkComplex exporter 2025
DR CongoCommodity-reliant 2025
EcuadorCommodity-reliant 2025
EgyptDiversifying 2025
EstoniaManufacturing exporter 2025
EthiopiaCommodity-reliant 2025
FinlandManufacturing exporter 2025
FranceComplex exporter 2025
GermanyComplex exporter 2025
GreeceDiversifying 2025
HungaryManufacturing exporter 2025
IcelandCommodity-reliant 2025
IndiaManufacturing exporter 2025
IndonesiaDiversifying 2025
IranCommodity-reliant 2024
IraqCommodity-reliant 2024
IrelandManufacturing exporter 2025
IsraelComplex exporter 2025
ItalyManufacturing exporter 2025
JapanComplex exporter 2025
JordanManufacturing exporter 2025
KuwaitCommodity-reliant 2025
LatviaManufacturing exporter 2025
LithuaniaManufacturing exporter 2025
LuxembourgManufacturing exporter 2025
MaltaManufacturing exporter 2025
MexicoManufacturing exporter 2025
NamibiaDiversifying 2025
NetherlandsComplex exporter 2025
New ZealandCommodity-reliant 2025
NorwayCommodity-reliant 2025
OmanCommodity-reliant 2025
PanamaCommodity-reliant 2025
ParaguayCommodity-reliant 2025
PeruCommodity-reliant 2025
PolandManufacturing exporter 2025
PortugalManufacturing exporter 2025
QatarCommodity-reliant 2025
RomaniaManufacturing exporter 2025
RussiaDiversifying 2023
Saudi ArabiaCommodity-reliant 2025
Sierra LeoneWithheld
SlovakiaManufacturing exporter 2025
SloveniaManufacturing exporter 2025
South AfricaDiversifying 2025
South KoreaComplex exporter 2025
SpainManufacturing exporter 2025
SwedenComplex exporter 2025
SwitzerlandComplex exporter 2025
TurkeyManufacturing exporter 2025
United Arab EmiratesCommodity-reliant 2025
United KingdomComplex exporter 2025
United StatesComplex exporter 2025
UruguayDiversifying 2025
ZambiaCommodity-reliant 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporterWithheld

How it is read

Each indicator has a range for every stage it speaks to, in its own units. A value inside a range counts fully for that stage and less the further outside it falls. Stage fits become probabilities; the leading stage is published only when at least 60% of the indicator weight is readable and fresh, a strong stage’s named evidence agrees (gates), and a challenger leads the current stage by 15 points before the call changes.

IndicatorWeightCommodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter
Manufactures, % of merchandise exports31%< 30.0%20.0% – 60.0%> 50.0%> 55.0%
Largest commodity group, % of merchandise exports25%> 35.0%12.0% – 45.0%< 20.0%< 15.0%
High-tech, % of manufactured exports25%< 5.0%< 12.0%5.0% – 22.0%> 18.0%
R&D spending, % of GDP19%< 0.4%< 0.8%0.5% – 2.0%> 1.8%

Gates: Commodity-reliant needs manufactures, % of merchandise exports at or near its range; Complex exporter needs high-tech, % of manufactured exports and r&d spending, % of gdp at or near its range.

The publish gate

Before any reading was computed, Palanor named known episodes and the stages they should read as. A schema publishes stages only if at least two episodes read as expected and hits outnumber misses. Misses stay on this page.

EpisodeExpectedRead (years)Outcome
South Korea, 2000–2024Complex exporterComplex exporter 18, Manufacturing exporter 7hit
Japan, 1996–2024Complex exporterComplex exporter 16, Manufacturing exporter 13hit
Germany, 1996–2024Complex exporterManufacturing exporter 21, Complex exporter 8miss
China, 2015–2024Manufacturing exporter or Complex exporterComplex exporter 10hit
Saudi Arabia, 2000–2024Commodity-reliantCommodity-reliant 22hit
Chile, 2000–2024Commodity-reliantCommodity-reliant 18hit
Ethiopia, 2005–2023Commodity-reliantCommodity-reliant 19hit

What it cannot see

Export shares say what crosses the border, not what is designed at home: assembly can lift the high-tech share (Mexico’s electronics) without the know-how behind it. Services exports are not counted. R&D spending is reported late and not for every country.

References

  1. César A. Hidalgo and Ricardo Hausmann, The building blocks of economic complexity (PNAS) (2009).
  2. Ricardo Hausmann, César A. Hidalgo et al., The Atlas of Economic Complexity (2011).
  3. Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg, Stages of Diversification (American Economic Review) (2003).

Recomputed weekly · last 2026-10-22 · signals country.<iso3>.schema.export-complexity.stage and .position · How Country Schemas work

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